Archive:Population statistics introduced

Latest update of text: June 2017. Planned article update: June 2018.

The Europe 2020 strategy identified population ageing as one of the key challenges facing the European Union (EU) in the coming years, alongside globalisation, climate change, competitiveness and macroeconomic imbalances. Indeed, population change and the structure of the population have been high on political, economic and social agendas in recent years and demographic developments for population growth, fertility, mortality and migration are closely followed.

Background

Population may increase as a result of either natural population growth (more people being born each year than the number who die each year) or positive net migration (more people arriving than leaving). Historically, the fertility rate in the EU was considerably higher than it has been in recent decades and this usually resulted in natural growth being the main driver of overall changes in population.

Since 2008, the total number of inhabitants in the EU-28 has been above 500 million; the only countries in the world that are more populous than the EU are China and India. Recent demographic developments show that the number of inhabitants in the EU continues to increase, albeit it at a relatively slow pace, while the population structure of the EU is becoming increasingly dominated by a growing share of older persons, as post-war, baby-boom generations reach retirement.

Changes in the balance between family-life, work and other activities may have resulted in some people deciding to postpone the birth of their first child or to have less or even no children. As a result, it has become commonplace to find a marked reduction in the number of births, with fertility rates in the EU Member States systematically lower than the natural replacement level (an average of around 2.1 children for each woman) which would keep the size of the population constant in the absence of net inward or outward migration. Indeed, in several southern and eastern EU Member States, fertility rates averaged close to 1.3 children per woman for a number of years. This resulted in the overwhelming share of population change within the EU being attributed to the impact of net migration.

Improvements in healthcare and medicines, healthier lifestyles and improved health awareness have contributed towards people living longer; indeed, life expectancy within the EU is at its highest levels ever. Continued increases in longevity and healthy life expectancy may be expected — if current trends continue — while the gap between male and female life expectancy is expected to close further. In the coming years, there will likely be further growth in the proportion of elderly workers and elderly people, while there will be a smaller share of children, young people and adults of working age. These unprecedented demographic changes that are likely to take place in the coming decades (an ageing population, low birth and fertility rates, changes to family structures and migration) are expected to be a key policy area, as they have the potential to impact a broad range of issues, among which, labour markets, pensions and provisions for healthcare, housing and social services, as well as migration and asylum policy.

An additional demographic issue grew rapidly in importance in 2015 when there was a considerable influx of people seeking refuge in the EU, driven, among others, by conflict and persecution in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, and poverty in a number of other countries that led to people striving to find a new life elsewhere; this resulted in a considerable increase in the number of first-time applications for asylum in the EU (1.3 million in 2015 and 1.2 million in 2016).

EU actions in the fields of population, migration and asylum

Policy developments within the domain of demographic change generally fall under the direct competence of individual EU Member States and/or their regional authorities. That said, there are common issues — for example, increasing dependency ratios — which are of interest to all of the Member States and it is within this context that the EU has encouraged a more in-depth debate to develop an agreed social agenda which is designed, for example, to help reach the objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. As such, the EU seeks to encourage the EU Member States to re-orientate their policies so as to promote growth and employment and ensure the future sustainability of public finances as a precondition for sustainable social cohesion.

An ageing population

In 2010, Eurostat and the Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion released a joint publication Demography report 2010 — Older, more numerous and diverse Europeans. This highlighted a range of policies that had already been introduced to address the issues surrounding the ageing population, providing opportunities that could enable older workers to remain active and productive for a longer proportion of their lives. By extending the active life span, policymakers suggest that it may be possible to create more opportunities and greater flexibility over the whole of an individual’s working life, for example, taking occasional career breaks to bring up children, look after other family members, or return to education in order to develop a range of new skills. At the end of their working lives, the elderly could also be encouraged to remain active for longer, through volunteering or other involvement in civil society. The other main theme in the report concerned the role of migration and how it might provide (at least temporary) respite from the challenges associated with population ageing. Economic migrants are predominantly relatively young and hence their arrival allows the population to be rejuvenated while at the same time increasing diversity. Nevertheless, the recent considerable increases in migratory flows into the EU from non-member countries resulted in additional efforts being required to ensure that immigrants were given the opportunity to integrate into their host society, in particular by being permitted to join the formal labour market.

The Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs released a publication The 2015 Ageing Report based on Eurostat’s EUROPOP2013 population projections. The report details the budgetary impact of an ageing population across the EU Member States for the period through to 2060 and addresses the sustainability of public finances alongside the pressures that will likely arise due to demographic change, detailing a set of age-related expenditures covering pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment benefits. This information will be used to feed into a variety of policy debates, including the Europe 2020 strategy, the European Semester, the Stability and Growth Pact, or an analysis of the impact of ageing populations on the labour market. As such, the projections may be used to highlight both immediate and future policy challenges posed by demographic change. Eurostat has subsequently revised and extended its population projections to take account of current trends in population change so that the projections now cover the period from 2015 to 2080.

European pillar of social rights

In 2017, the European Commission adopted a Communication Establishing a European Pillar of Social Rights (COM(2017) 250 final) designed to build a more inclusive and fairer EU (the pillar is primarily conceived for euro area Member States), addressing the rapid changes taking place in society and the world of work. To do so, policy developments are supported by a Eurostat scoreboard of key indicators which may be used to screen the employment and social performances of participating EU Member States. Under the heading of public support/social protection and inclusion, there are two demographic indicators included for analysing healthcare, namely, healthy life years at age 65 and life expectancy at age 65.

Migration

War, conflicts, persecution and economic migration are some of the main reasons why many people move around the world, with the root causes often found in underlying issues such as demographics, climate change or poverty, supplemented by issues such as religion and corruption.

The Stockholm programme provided a roadmap for EU policy developments in relation to migration and asylum during the period 2009-2014. During this time, EU Member States agreed to develop a common immigration policy to ensure that legal migration into the EU was well managed, improving migrant integration measures and enhancing cooperation with non-member countries which are the origin of most migrant arrivals. EU-wide laws were introduced to standardise admission and residence rules for the following categories of non-EU citizens wishing to come to the EU to work or study:

unpaid trainees, school pupils and voluntary workers;
students;
highly-qualified workers — the EU Blue Card directive (2009/50/EC);
researchers.

This was followed in December 2011 by the adoption of the so-called Single Permit Directive (2011/98/EU) which created a set of rights for non-EU workers legally residing in an EU Member State and was followed in 2014 by two additional Directives on the conditions of entry and residence for seasonal workers and corporate transferees. Eurostat collects data on residence permits, including: the number of authorisations to stay on European territories that are granted to non-EU citizens (by reason for the permit issuance); the stock of valid residence permits; the stock of long-term residents; and the number of Blue Cards that have been granted.

In 2014, the European Commission set out a list of 10 key priorities, which would be the focus of its work programme for the period 2015-2019; one of these was Towards a European agenda on migration. The EU seeks to provide support and protection to people in need: it addresses both immediate and long-term challenges of managing migration flows by saving lives and providing humanitarian assistance, enabling migrants and refugees to stay closer to home and helping the development of non-member countries in order to address the root causes of irregular migration in the long term.

With a rapidly changing situation and the emergence of the migration crisis in Europe, this was further developed in May 2015, as the European Commission adopted an agenda on migration (COM(2015) 240). It highlighted that migration could be seen as both an opportunity and a challenge for the EU and looked beyond the on-going crisis to the development of structural actions designed to help EU Member States better manage all aspects of migration. As such, the agenda outlined an immediate response to the migration crisis, but also set out longer-term steps to manage migration in the EU.

Developing a new policy on legal migration — this is considered to be of vital importance given the future demographic challenges that the EU is facing. This policy area will be developed so as to focus on attracting workers that the EU economy needs, by facilitating entry and the recognition of qualifications and thereby keeping Europe an attractive destination, through actions such as reviewing the Blue Card scheme.
Saving lives and securing external borders — this involves: the provision of humanitarian assistance to prevent human tragedies (for example, the EU has provided additional funding to Frontex search and rescue operations); new financing initiatives in North Africa to help the region become more robust in relation to search and rescue activities; and providing better management of external borders, in particular through solidarity towards those EU Member States located at the external borders, ensuring shared management of the EU’s borders through the launch of a European border and coast guard.
Reducing the incentives for irregular migration — this includes a focus on addressing the root causes behind irregular migration, dismantling smuggling and trafficking networks and defining actions for the better application of return policies.
Strengthening the common asylum policy — adapting the EU’s asylum policies so they are based on solidarity towards those needing international protection as well as among the EU Member States, whose full application of the common rules must be ensured through systematic monitoring.

Asylum

The EU has a Common European Asylum System to ensure an efficient, fair and humane asylum policy with a common and harmonised set of rules. In April 2016, the European Commission adopted a Communication titled Towards a reform of the Common European Asylum System and enhancing legal avenues to Europe (COM(2016) 197 final), which included plans for a more sustainable system of allocating asylum applications between EU Member States in order to rectify weaknesses that became apparent during the migrant crisis of 2015, in particular those linked to the Dublin Regulation (EU) No 604/2013. Eurostat collects data on asylum applicants, first instance and final decisions on applications, resettlement, as well as taking back or taking charge of asylum seekers (Dublin statistics).

During the summer of 2016 the EU adopted a migration partnership framework as the basis for a new approach to manage migration better. This was designed to promote EU Member States, European institutions and non-member countries working together to better manage migration flows, including:

short-term measures to save lives, fight traffickers, increase returns of people who do not have the right to stay in the EU, and provide support to people in need by resettling refugees;
longer-term measures to address the root causes of irregular migration and forced displacement in partner countries and to improve opportunities in countries of origin by fostering sustainable development.

The initial focus of the framework was centred on a number of priority countries identified in sub-Saharan Africa, namely, Ethiopia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal, with proposals for partnerships in the form of tailor-made ‘compacts’ (political frameworks for cooperation pulling together different instruments and tools to develop a comprehensive partnership) designed to address the specific needs of the countries concerned. In October 2016, the EU agreed to increase cooperation by agreeing two additional compacts with Jordan and Lebanon with the goal of supporting the key role played by both countries in relation to refugees and displaced persons originating from the Syrian conflict. In February 2017, EU leaders adopted the Malta declaration which focuses on a series of measures to stem the flow of migrants and asylum-seekers from Libya to Italy.

Statistics on population, migration and asylum

Eurostat compiles, monitors and analyses a wide range of demographic data, including statistics on the number of national and regional inhabitants and information on various demographic factors — including births, deaths, marriages and divorces, immigration and emigration — which may impact on the size, the structure and the specific characteristics of the population.

Eurostat also collects detailed information on different subjects related to migration, citizenship and asylum, for example: annual flows of immigrants and emigrants, counts of and residence permits issued to non-EU nationals, persons acquiring the citizenship of an EU Member State, information on asylum applicants and asylum decisions, or statistics related to the enforcement of immigration legislation, for example, non-EU citizens refused entry at the EU’s external borders, or the removal of unauthorised non-EU citizens found to be illegally present on the territory of a Member State. These statistics provide the basis for the development and monitoring of EU policymaking in a number of different areas, including: the impact of migration on labour markets, migrant integration, the development of a common asylum system, the prevention of unauthorised migration, and trafficking of human beings.

The population and housing census is a considerable undertaking carried out every 10 years by most national statistical institutes. It provides a count of the entire population and its housing stock and supplements this with information on a range of characteristics (geographic, demographic, social, economic as well as household and family characteristics). Census data therefore provides an essential source of vital statistics ranging from the lowest small-area geographical divisions to national and international levels. The richness and volume of census data provides considerable scope for policymakers and researchers alike. The latest census was conducted across EU Member States in 2011 and was based on European legislation that defined, for the first time, a harmonised set of high-quality data, based on: • European Commission Regulation (EC) No 1201/2009 contains definitions and technical specifications for the census topics (variables) and breakdowns (for example, classifications of location, sex, marital status and occupation) that were required; • European Commission Regulation (EU) No 519/2010 provides details of the data output to be used to transmit data to the European Commission in order to comply with a defined programme of statistical data (tabulations); • European Commission Regulation (EU) No 1151/2010 legislates for the transmission of a quality report containing a systematic description of the data sources used and the quality of the census results produced.

The Census Hub is a new means of data transmission, designed to provide a modern and innovative technical solution for the transmission and dissemination of census data. It provides free access to the wealth of data and is an easy-to-use tool that permits users to specify their own customised tabulations.

Furthermore, population data has a wider range of uses within official statistics: for example, they may be used to calibrate survey data or alternatively to compile derived indicators in association with other data sources (such as the calculation of per capita ratios).

Further Eurostat information

Publications

Main tables

Database

Immigration (migr_immi)

Emigration (migr_emi)

Acquisition and loss of citizenship (migr_acqn)

Dedicated section

Population

Other information

External links