INFORMA test

Data extracted: May 2024.

Planned article update: September 2026.

Highlights

There are many advantages that may, potentially, be enjoyed by people living in predominantly rural regions, including (among others) more space, a better quality of life, lower housing costs and less pollution. However, these advantages may be outweighed by challenges, such as fewer job opportunities, weaker infrastructure (energy, transport, information and communications networks), poorer access to public services (such as healthcare or education) or commercial services (such as retail outlets or entertainment). When these challenges outweigh the benefits, some people – often those who are relatively young – may choose to leave rural regions in search of greater opportunities and/or prosperity. This may reduce birth rates and lower (or turn negative) the rate of natural population change in some predominantly rural areas, which results in an ageing population and fewer people of working age (see the infographic below).

Depopulation isn’t exclusive to rural regions, it may also impact other regions of the European Union (EU) that have been ‘left behind’. However, many predominantly rural regions – often in the far north, south and east of the EU – have experienced the departure of people moving out of rural areas towards predominantly urban regions – or further afield, to other EU countries – often in search of economic prosperity.

Much has been written about Europe’s ageing population. While this pattern is observed across most of the EU, there are contrasting developments. Some urban areas are characterised by relatively rapid population growth and young people accounting for a comparatively high share of the total number of inhabitants. This pattern may be linked to young people moving to urban areas for education and/or work, while older people are more likely to leave big cities and retire to the countryside or to smaller towns and cities.

This article focuses on population projections and forms part of Eurostat’s twin publications on Rural Europe and Urban Europe.

Infographic 1: How is the EU population projected to change?
(millions, 1 January 2023 – 1 January 2051)
Source: Eurostat (proj_19rp3)

Population projections by urban-rural typology

Population projections are ‘what-if’ scenarios that aim to show hypothetical developments based on a set of assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration. They can be used by statisticians, policymakers or the public at large, contributing to an informed debate on demographic and societal changes, for example as part of an assessment of regional policies, the ageing population, or the long-term sustainability of public finances. The latest projections (EUROPOP2019) were produced at national and subnational levels for all of the EU and EFTA countries, for the period through to 2100. Although a new set of national population projections have been made (EUROPOP2023), the next set of regional population projections should be released in 2025.

Depopulation is likely to be a major challenge facing the EU in coming years, particularly across predominantly rural regions. While some dynamic regions are thriving due to an inflow of younger people, others are lagging behind, with a progressively smaller number of inhabitants and ageing populations. Map 1 shows how the population of NUTS level 3 regions is projected to change during the period 1 January 2023 to 1 January 2051; note the projections were made on the basis of official statistics received up to reference year 2019. Looking in more detail

the population in almost half of all predominantly urban regions in the EU (109 out of 236 for which data are available) is projected to rise during the period under consideration
the population in around three quarters of all intermediate regions in the EU (385 out of 511 for which data are available) is projected to fall during the period under consideration
the population in 84.5% of predominantly rural regions (343 out of 406 for which data are available) is projected to fall during the period under consideration.

Among predominantly urban regions, the population is projected to increase by more than 25.0% between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2051 in the island regions of Tenerife, Mallorca (both Spain) and Malta, as well as in the Romanian region of Ilfov (that surrounds the capital region) and the German region of Karlsruhe, Stadtkreis (where the highest projected increase is reported, up 38.1%). By contrast, there are 3 NUTS level 3 regions in the Greek capital or within close proximity of the Greek capital where the population is projected to fall by more than 30.0% – Kentrikos Tomeas Athinon, Voreios Tomeas Athinon and Peiraias, Nisoi.

Among intermediate regions, there are 5 NUTS level 3 regions in the Baltic countries where the population is projected to fall by more than 40.0% between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2051. These regions include Latgale in Latvia and the Lithuanian regions of Telšių apskritis, Alytaus apskritis, Panevėžio apskritis and Utenos apskritis (where the largest projected fall is reported, down 46.5%).

Among predominantly rural regions, there are also 5 NUTS level 3 regions where the population is projected to fall by more than 40.0% between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2051. These regions include Teleorman in Romania, Vukovarsko-srijemska županija in Croatia, Smolyan in Bulgaria, and the Lithuanian regions of Marijampolės apskritis and Tauragės apskritis (where the largest projected fall is reported, down 43.7%).

Map 1: Overall projected population change, by urban-rural typology, 1 January 2023 to 1 January 2051
(by NUTS 3 regions)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjangrp3) and (proj_19rp3)

Between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2051, the EU’s population is projected to fall by 1.8% overall to 440.5 million inhabitants. An examination based on the urban-rural typology suggests that there will be different patterns of development

the population of predominantly urban regions in the EU is projected to continue growing for most of the period under consideration (although the rate of change will slow and the number of inhabitants is projected to fall from 2047 onwards)
by contrast, the latest projections suggest that the population living in intermediate regions and predominantly rural regions of the EU will fall every year between 2023 and 2050
while the decline in population numbers across intermediate regions is projected to accelerate, the fall in the number of people living in the EU’s predominantly rural regions is projected to remain relatively constant (falling 270 000–311 000 inhabitants each year).

Figure 1: Projected population developments, by component of change, EU, 2023–50
(1 000)
Source: Eurostat (proj_19rdbi3)

Table 1 presents average annual rates of projected population changes for 5-year intervals over the period 2023–50. It confirms that the growth in the number of inhabitants living in the EU’s predominantly urban regions will slow and turn negative by the end of the period under consideration, while the decline in the population of intermediate regions will accelerate. The number of people living in predominantly rural regions of the EU is projected to fall during each 5-year period, by an average of 3.1–3.6‰ each year.

Table 1: Average annual projected population change, by urban-rural typology, EU, 2023–50
(‰)
Source: Eurostat (proj_19rdbi3)

Between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2051, the EU’s population living in predominantly rural regions is projected to fall, on average, by 3.3‰ per year. This figure may be contrasted with the projections for intermediate regions (down on average by 1.2‰) and predominantly urban regions (up on average by 1.0‰). Looking in more detail across the EU countries

the population of predominantly rural regions is projected to fall in 21 out of 24 EU countries for which data are available – the exceptions being Denmark, Sweden and Ireland; note that there are no predominantly rural regions in Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta
the number of inhabitants living in predominantly rural regions is projected to fall at its most rapid pace across Baltic and eastern EU countries – with the rural populations of Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia and Lithuania projected to decline by more than 8.0‰ per year on average
the population of intermediate regions is projected to fall in 17 out of 26 EU countries which have such regions – falls of more than 10.0‰ per year are projected in all 3 Baltic countries
the population of predominantly urban regions is projected to fall in 9 Baltic, eastern and southern EU countries, while the most rapid increases in the number of inhabitants living in predominantly urban regions are projected for Malta (7.7‰ per year), Ireland (7.1‰) and Sweden (6.7‰).

Table 2: Average annual projected population change, by urban-rural typology, 2023–50
(‰)
Source: Eurostat (proj_19rdbi3)

Population projections in predominantly rural regions

Figures 2 and 3 conclude this section, providing a more detailed picture of projected population changes within predominantly rural regions. Figure 2 shows relative changes highlighting the 10 predominantly rural regions with the highest and lowest rates of projected change during the period 1 January 2023 to 1 January 2051; note that the size of each bubble reflects the total number of inhabitants living in each region as of 1 January 2023. There are 34 predominantly rural regions across the EU where the total number of inhabitants is projected to fall at an average annual rate of at least 10.0‰ between 2023 and 2050; a majority of these are located in the eastern EU countries of Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania. The southern Bulgarian region of Smolyan has the lowest rate of change, with its number of inhabitants projected to fall 20.1‰ per year on average. By contrast, there are 3 predominantly rural regions where the total number of inhabitants is projected to increase at an annual rate of more than 10.0‰, all of which are island regions: Lesvos, Limnos and Ikaria, Samos (both in Greece) and El Hierro (Spain). Relatively high rates of population growth are also projected across several predominantly rural regions of Ireland, as well as in the northern Italian region of Bolzano-Bozen.

Figure 2: Average annual projected population change in selected predominantly rural regions, 2023–50
(‰)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjangrp3) and (proj_19rdbi3)

Figure 3 shows a similar set of information (as that presented in Figure 2) but with the focus shifting to absolute changes in population numbers. Between 2023 and 2050, there are 2 predominantly rural regions across the EU where the local population is projected to increase by upwards of 100 000 people – the Irish region of South-West and the northern Italian region of Bolzano-Bozen. During the same period, the latest projections suggest that 7 predominantly rural regions will see their populations decline by more than 100 000 inhabitants; 6 of these 7 regions are situated in Romania, the exception being the eastern Polish region of Chelmsko-zamojski. The largest overall fall is projected in the central Romanian region of Arges, where the latest projections suggest the number of inhabitants will decline by 140 000 during the period under consideration.

Figure 3: Projected population change in selected predominantly rural regions, 2023–50
(1 000)
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_pjangrp3) and (proj_19rdbi3)

Population projections in metropolitan regions

According to the latest regional population projections (EUROPOP2019), the population of the EU will fall during the coming 3 decades and is projected to stand at 440.5 million inhabitants by 1 January 2051. Although the overall population is projected to fall, Figure 4 indicates there will likely be a mixed pattern of developments across EU regions.

The number of inhabitants living in capital city metropolitan regions is projected to continue rising each year throughout the period under consideration (albeit at a slower pace towards the end of the period under consideration).
The latest population projections suggest that the number of inhabitants living in metropolitan regions (other than the capital) will also grow each year through to 2039, after which there will be a modest but increasing decline.
By contrast, the number of inhabitants living in non-metropolitan regions is projected to fall each year, with the rate at which their population declines accelerating from the late 2030s onwards.

Figure 4: Projected annual population change in metropolitan regions, EU, 2023–50
(%)
Source: Eurostat (proj_19rp3) and (proj_19np)

For the period 1 January 2023 to 1 January 2051, the latest population projections suggest that the number of people residing in capital city metropolitan regions of the EU will increase 5.6% overall. A modest increase is projected for the number of people living in metropolitan regions other than the capital (up 0.5%), while the number living in non-metropolitan regions is projected to fall 7.4%. Among the EU countries, there are some much larger fluctuations projected

the number of inhabitants living in the capital city metropolitan regions of Malta, Ireland and Sweden is projected to increase by more than 20.0%, while the number of inhabitants living in the capital city metropolitan regions of Spain and Estonia is projected to increase by more than 10.0%; this was the case in Luxembourg and Cyprus too
the only EU countries where the number of inhabitants living in the capital city metropolitan region is projected to fall are Croatia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia and Greece
Athina – the Greek capital city metropolitan region – is the only capital where the number of inhabitants is projected to change by less than the national average
the number of inhabitants living in metropolitan regions (other than the capital) is projected to increase by almost a fifth in Sweden (19.4%) and Ireland (18.8%)
the number of inhabitants living in metropolitan regions (other than the capital) is projected to fall in 12 out of 22 EU countries for which there are such regions; the largest falls – at least 10.0% – are projected for Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Portugal and Lithuania.

Table 1: Projected population change in metropolitan regions, 2023–50
(%)
Source: Eurostat (proj_19rp3) and (proj_19np)

This section concludes with information on projected population changes for individual metropolitan regions. Between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2051, the population is projected to increase in 117 out of 244 metropolitan regions in the EU for which data are available. The highest absolute increases are projected for the metropolitan regions of Madrid, Paris and Barcelona, where the number of inhabitants is projected to rise 1.2 million, 944 000 and 819 000 respectively; see Figure 5. There are also relatively large population increases projected for

the capital city metropolitan regions of Stockholm (Sweden) and Dublin (Ireland) – up by more than half a million people
Bordeaux, Toulouse and Lyon (all in France) and Göteborg (Sweden), where the number of inhabitants is projected to rise by more than 300 000 people.

By contrast, between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2051, the populations of several large metropolitan regions across the EU are projected to fall: Bucureşti (Romania), Porto (Portugal) and Napoli (Italy) are projected to see their populations decrease by more than 200 000 inhabitants each, with larger reductions in Katowice (Poland; down 440 000 inhabitants) and Athina (Greece; down 620 000 inhabitants).

In relative terms, there were 3 metropolitan regions across the EU where the latest population projections suggest the total number of inhabitants will increase by more than 25.0% between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2051: Gießen in central Germany, Valletta in Malta and Palma de Mallorca in Spain. Rapid population growth is also projected for the metropolitan regions of Toulouse, Bordeaux and Montpellier in France, Dublin in Ireland, and Stockholm and Malmö in Sweden; their populations are projected to increase by 20.0–25.0% during the period under consideration. By contrast, there were 6 regions where the number of inhabitants is projected to fall by more than 20.0% between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2051: Guadeloupe and Fort-de-France (both outermost regions of France); Kaunas in Lithuania; Craiova, Galați and Ploieşti (all in Romania).

Figure 5: Projected population change in selected metropolitan regions, 2023–50
Source: Eurostat (proj_19rp3) and (proj_19np)

Source data for tables and graphs

Population projections: tables and figures

Context

Rural areas

The President of the European Commission has stated that ‘Rural areas are the fabric of our society and the heartbeat of our economy. They are a core part of our identity and our economic potential. We will cherish and preserve our rural areas and invest in their future.’

To ensure that rural areas continue to play an essential role in providing homes, jobs, food, biodiversity, varied ecosystems and more, a European Commission Communication set out A long-term vision for the EU’s rural areas – Towards stronger, connected, resilient and prosperous rural areas by 2040 (COM(2021) 345 final). In shaping this vision, the Commission gathered views of rural communities and businesses via public consultations and stakeholder-led events, to outline a comprehensive plan designed to help rural communities and businesses reach their full potential in the coming decades. It highlights 4 complementary areas of action

stronger rural areas – home to empowered and vibrant local communities
connected rural areas – maintaining or improving public transport services and connections, as well as deepening digital infrastructures
more resilient rural areas – by preserving natural resources, restoring landscapes, greening farming activities and shortening supply chains, rural areas should become more resilient to climate change, natural hazards and economic crises
prosperous rural areas – by diversifying economic activities into sustainable local economic strategies and improving the value added of farming and agri-food activities.

The EU’s Rural Action Plan is a proposal contained within the long-term vision. The introductory article of this online publication provides more information about the long-term vision and, more broadly, the EU’s rural development policy. The vision is based around 5 key areas (supported by a range of flagship initiatives)

foster territorial cohesion and create new opportunities to attract innovative businesses
provide access to quality jobs
promote new and improved skills
ensure better infrastructure and services
leverage the role of sustainable agriculture and diversified economic activities.

The Rural Pact provides a framework for cooperation at European, national, regional and local levels. It is designed to facilitate interaction on rural matters between public authorities, civil society, businesses, academia and citizens. It has 3 objectives

amplify the voice of rural areas and raise them higher on the political agenda
structure and enable collaboration and mutual learning
encourage and monitor voluntary commitment for action.

Urban areas

There are various pressing challenges in the EU, including instability caused by the Russian military aggression against Ukraine, environmental degradation and climate change, demographic transition, migration, the cost of living and social inequalities. Cities are on the frontline of delivering solutions to some of these issues, as they remain poles of attraction, generally offering a broad range of education and employment opportunities, as well as a range of services to their surrounding regions. The various dimensions of urban life – economic, social, cultural and environmental – are closely inter-related. Successful urban developments are often based on coordinated/integrated approaches that seek to balance these dimensions through a range of policy measures such as urban renewal, increasing education opportunities, preventing crime, encouraging social inclusion or environmental protection.

EU policymakers have sought to follow a principle of multi-level governance, working together with cities and regional stakeholders, in order to promote sustainable and resilient growth in urban areas. At the end of May 2016, a meeting of ministers responsible for urban matters was held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. It reached an agreement on an Urban Agenda for the EU, as established by the Pact of Amsterdam. This agreement was a key milestone in the development of an EU-wide approach to urban challenges and established the development of 12 priority areas for partnerships between EU institutions, EU countries, cities and other stakeholders. The themes cover: the inclusion of migrants and refugees; air quality; urban poverty; housing; the circular economy; jobs and skills in the local economy; climate adaptation; energy transition; sustainable land use; urban mobility; digital transition; public procurement.

The Urban Agenda for the EU has subsequently enabled cities, EU countries, the European Commission and other key stakeholders to come together to tackle pressing urban matters and deliver specific outputs for the benefit of the population. Through its contribution to the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Urban Agenda is also outward-looking and connected to global challenges.

EU policymakers recognise the important role that may be played by the urban dimension of regional policy, in particular measures designed to mitigate poverty and social exclusion. In doing so, the urban dimension of cohesion policy has been strengthened during the period 2021–27: a minimum of 6% of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) dedicated to sustainable urban development strategies. Alongside this is a new European Urban Initiative (EUI) – launched in the 3rd quarter of 2022 – with the goal of supporting cities to innovate, access knowledge and understand policy.

Explore further

Database

Thematic section

Publications

Statistical publications

Demography report
Eurostat regional yearbook – 2024 edition
Urban Europe – statistics on cities, towns and suburbs – 2016 edition

Methodology

External links

Urban Agenda for the EU

European Commission – Directorate-General Agriculture and rural development

European Commission – Directorate-General Regional and Urban Policy

European Committee of the Regions

European Committee of the Regions – political priorities 2020–25

European networks

United Nations

Legislation

Statistical legislation

Demography, population stock and balance – legislation
Population projections – legislation
Regulation (EU) 2017/2391 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 December 2017 amending Regulation (EC) No 1059/2003 as regards the territorial typologies (Tercet)
Consolidated and amended version of Regulation (EC) No 1059/2003 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the establishment of a common classification of territorial units for statistics (NUTS)

Policy legislation

Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No 522/2014 of 11 March 2014 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 1301/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to the detailed rules concerning the principles for the selection and management of innovative actions in the area of sustainable urban development to be supported by the European Regional Development Fund
Regulation (EU) No 1305/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 December 2013 on support for rural development by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD)
Regulation (EU) No 1310/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 December 2013 laying down certain transitional provisions on support for rural development by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD)

Visualisation