Data extracted in June 2024
Planned article update: May 2026
Highlights
At the EU level, the at-risk-of-poverty rate remained stable at 16.2% according to the EU-SILC 2024 (2023 income).
Flash estimates for 2024 income suggest that the at-risk-of-poverty rate is expected to slightly decrease to 16.1%, compared to 16.2% in 2023.
This article provides the latest developments in terms of income dynamics and poverty. All figures provided are based on structural and detailed indicators from European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), complemented with flash estimates (FE). Since the EU-SILC income data refer to the previous year, Eurostat compiled flash estimates of the 2024 income to predict the evolution of the at-risk-of-poverty rate for the upcoming EU-SILC 2025.
- According to the EU-SILC 2024 results, the at-risk-of-poverty rate (AROP) at the EU level remained unchanged at 16.2% between 2022 and 2023 income years. The EU-level flash estimates for 2024 income indicate a slight decrease, with the AROP rate expected to fall to 16.1%.
- Median equivalised disposable income at the EU level, according to the EU-SILC 2024 results, increased by 6.1% from 2022 to 2023. For the 2024 income, flash estimates nowcast an overall increase of 5.0%, with statistically significant positive changes expected in all countries.
- The EU-SILC 2024 data show that real income, at the EU level, in 2023 increased by 0.5% compared to the previous year. Flash estimates, suggest for 2024, a statistically significant increase of 2.5%. The real income for 2024 is nowcasted to increase in 22 of the 25 countries for which estimates are available, while for the remaining three – Belgium, Estonia, and Luxembourg – the nowcast indicates stability.
At-risk-of-poverty rate
According to the EU-SILC 2024, 72.1 million people in the EU – representing 16.2% of the population – were at risk of poverty (AROP). The share of the population remained stable at 16.2% compared with EU-SILC 2023.
As EU-SILC income data refer to the previous year, Eurostat produces flash estimates of 2024 income to predict the evolution of AROP for the upcoming EU-SILC 2025. Flash estimates show a very slight, non-statistically significant decrease (-0.1%) in AROP based on 2024 income at EU level.
Source: Eurostat ilc_li02, flash estimates
Table 1 shows the at-risk-of-poverty rate in EU-SILC 2024 (2023 income), complemented by the AROP flash estimates for 2024 income. According to the 2024 EU-SILC results, Bulgaria (21.7%), Latvia (21.6%), and Lithuania (21.5%) had the highest at-risk-of-poverty rates. On the other side, Denmark, Belgium, and Czechia reported the lowest shares (11.6%, 11.5% and 9.5%, respectively). Flash estimates are presented by arrows indicating the estimated direction and magnitude of change. According to the 2024 flash estimates, AROP is expected to remain stable in most countries (20), decrease in Estonia, and increase in 4 (Greece, Portugal, Slovenia and Finland).
Source: Eurostat ilc_li02, flash estimates
Median equivalised disposable income
Figure 2 shows that, according to the EU-SILC 2024 data, income increased in 2023 at EU level by 6.1% in nominal terms, and by 0.5% in real terms. Similarly, according to the flash estimates, EU income in 2024 is expected to continue to increase in both nominal and real terms by about 5.0% and 2.5% respectively.
Source: Eurostat ilc_di01 , ilc_di18 , prc_hicp_aind , flash estimates
Table 2 displays the change, at national level, of median income in nominal and real terms from EU-SILC 2023 income year, along with the flash estimates for the income year 2024. Between the 2022 and 2023 income years (covered by the 2023 and 2024 EU-SILC data, respectively), the median income increased in all EU countries. In particular, the highest increases were reported in Croatia (25.0%), Romania (19.7%) and Bulgaria (19.7%). On the other side, in Denmark and Italy the variation was 2.9% and 4.0% respectively. The evolution of income in real terms, for the same EU-SILC operation years, differed across countries: seven countries reported negative changes with the largest decreases recorded in Czechia (-3.3%) and Estonia (-2.2%). Among the remaining 19 countries, where real income in 2023 (EU-SILC 2024) was higher than in 2022 (EU-SILC 2023), Croatia (15.3%) and Bulgaria (10.2%) experienced the sharpest increases.
Flash estimates in nominal terms for 2024 income also show positive changes for all countries. When analysing the results in real terms, the nowcasted median disposable income is estimated to increase in 22 of the 25 countries for which estimates are available, while for the remaining three – Belgium, Estonia, and Luxembourg – the nowcast indicates stability.
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Source: Eurostat ilc_di01 , ilc_di18 , prc_hicp_aind , flash estimates
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Source data for tables and graphs
Data sources
The EU-SILC indicators provide insights on the economic wellbeing and other living conditions on EU residents based on data collected during a specific year, denoted as N. This data encompasses both the characteristics of households for that year (N) and the income from the preceding year, N-1. The income for year N-1 is an estimate for income of year N within EU-SILC. To take into account differences in household size and composition and thus enable comparisons of income levels, the concept of equivalised disposable income is used. It is based on the total net (also referred to as disposable) household income divided by the number of 'equivalent adults', using a standard (equivalence) scale.
Eurostat flash estimates complement structural and detailed indicators from EU-SILC to capture the latest income changes, particularly relevant in times of crisis. Flash estimates are based on modelling and microsimulation techniques [1] that consider the complex interaction between labour market developments, economic and monetary policies, and the implementation of social reforms. For the latter, Eurostat uses the latest information on labour from the EU Labour Force Survey together with the EUROMOD [2]microsimulation model, which provides the effects of direct taxes, social security contributions and benefits on households’ income.
The at-risk-of-poverty rate (AROP) corresponds to the share of people with an equivalised disposable income (after social transfer) below the at-risk-of-poverty threshold, which is set at 60% of the national median equivalised disposable income after social transfers.
Income in real terms reflects the level of the equivalised disposable income, taking changes in prices into account. The price deflator used is the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) with 2019 as the base year. This is an index for measuring the change in prices of consumer goods and services purchased by households relative to 2019. More information on inflation can be found at the following link: Consumer prices - inflation. Therefore, the EU-SILC data on median in real terms derived using a combination of three data sources:
- Distribution of income by quantiles (ilc_di01)
- Income in real terms (2010 SILC=100) (ilc_di18)
- HICP - annual data (average index and rate of change)(prc_hicp_aind)
Context
Indicators on poverty and income inequality are based on EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC). The AROP rate is part of the at risk of poverty or social exclusion rate defined in the framework of the EU 2030 target on poverty and social exclusion (AROPE).
Providing timelier social statistics – especially indicators on income poverty and inequality – is a priority for the Commission and the European Statistical System. In order to better monitor the effectiveness of social policies at EU level, Flash Estimates (FE) offer early indicative results for income year N, until EU-SILC data become available. These estimates, that are part of the experimental statistics produced by Eurostat, have a release date appreciably earlier than the survey data: i.e., the flash estimates for income year 2024 are published in June 2025 complementing the EU-SILC 2025, which also refers to income year 2024 but is scheduled for release in April 2026.
Footnotes
- The flash estimates for Romania are based on current income information collected through the Household Budget Survey (HBS – Romania) and for Sweden on the national microsimulation model. ↑
- EUROMOD is a tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU and UK that enables researchers and policy analysts to calculate the effects of taxes and benefits on household incomes and work incentives. Initially developed by the Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Essex, it is now maintained, developed, and managed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, in collaboration with Eurostat and national authorities from the EU countries ↑
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External links
Legislation
- Regulation (EC) No 2019/1700 — the central piece of legislation for social surveys including EU-SILC
- Regulation (EC) No 2019/2242 — additional central piece of legislation for EU-SILC