Data extracted on 13 June 2025
Planned article update: September 2025
Highlights
As the beginning of 2025, excess mortality across the European Union kept declining, it was 4.4% in January, 1.2% in February and 0.7% in March 2025.
By the end of the first quarter in March 2025, excess mortality was negative in 11 out of 26 EU countries.
Malta, Portugal, and Finland recorded the highest excess mortality rates in March 2025 (21.1%, 9.3%, and 7.5%, respectively), while Latvia, Bulgaria, and Luxembourg recorded the lowest rates (−14.7%, −9.7%, and −7.0%).
This article presents an overview of the developments of excess mortality across the EU in the first quarter of 2025, based on all-cause mortality data.
In this article, excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during a defined period, above that which was observed in the baseline period. The baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred in each month during the period 2016-2019. The higher the value, the higher the number of additional deaths compared with the baseline. A negative indicator shows that fewer deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period.
This indicator, which is part of the European Statistical Monitor, provides a comprehensive comparison of additional deaths among the European countries. It provides a general measure of mortality because it includes all deaths regardless of their cause. For more information on the method to calculate the indicator, see below under Data sources.
Recent data on excess mortality in the EU
Excess mortality in the EU has varied considerably over the period from January 2024 to March 2025. Several months in 2024—particularly from August to October—saw higher levels of excess mortality compared to January 2025 (Figure 1).
January recorded the highest excess mortality in Q1 2025 in the EU, followed by a steady decline through February and March. Overall, the average mortality in the EU remained higher in early 2025 than in the same period a year earlier (Table 1).
In total, there were 31,641 excess deaths recorded across the EU during Q1 2025, distributed as follows: January: 18,335 excess deaths. February: 10,030 excess deaths. March: 3,276 excess deaths.
Excess mortality in January 2025
The excess mortality continued to vary across the EU (Figure 2). The excess mortality rate was negative in 10 EU countries: the lowest rates were recorded in Bulgaria (-13.2 %), Romania (-12.5%) and Latvia (-12.2%), while the highest took place in Luxembourg (21.5%), France (16.8%), and Belgium (16.5%).
Excess mortality in February 2025
In February, the excess mortality indicator fell to 1.2% EU-wide (Figure 3), the lowest rate was recorded in Latvia (-13.4%), Lithuania (-12.6 %) and Bulgaria (-9.4%) and highest rate in the Netherlands (9.7%), Germany (8.4%) and France (6.9%).
Excess mortality in March 2025
March brought a further decline in deaths EU-wide—though 14 countries still showed positive excess mortality (Figure 4). In March continued the lowest rate in Latvia (-14.1%), Bulgaria (-9.7%) and mortality decreased in Luxembourg to -7.0%. Excess mortality increased mostly in Malta to 21.1%, in Portugal (9.3%), Finland (7.5%).
(% difference versus average monthly deaths in 2016-2019)
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
Recent data on weekly deaths in the EU
Across Q1 2025, weekly deaths in the EU ranged between 108,000 and 111,000 per week in January. Numbers then gradually declined through February, reaching around 99,000 in Week 9 and fell further in March, dropping to approximately 91,000 by Week 13. In total, over 1,340,000 deaths were recorded across all weeks.
- The second week of January was marked by the highest number of weekly deaths across EU countries (111,142). In comparison with the same period of the previous year, the highest number during the first quarter 2024 also occurred during the second week of January but was slightly higher, at 111,309 deaths.
- The lowest weekly death count in the first quarter of 2024 was observed in week 12, with 89,342 deaths. Data shows a decline in mortality starting from week 10 in 2025.
In the tool below, you may select the country you would like to analyse.
Further releases
Data for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision. Starting from the data reference period of January 2025, this article and the related indicator will be updated quarterly, with Q2 2025 scheduled for publication by mid-September 2025.
For additional information on the COVID-19 pandemic see Deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source data for tables and figures
Data sources
The excess mortality indicator takes the number of deaths from any cause in a given period and compares it with a historical baseline from previous years in a period that was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this case, the baseline consists of the average number of deaths that occurred in each month during the period 2016-2019. The European Union (EU) average baseline for 2016-2019 was not adjusted for age-specific mortality rates or increasing life expectancy. The indicator is expressed as the percentage of additional deaths compared with the baseline period (2016-2019). A negative percentage indicates that no additional deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator, covering EU and EFTA countries, is based on weekly death data transmitted to Eurostat by EU countries on a voluntary basis. Data are classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS regions, and are continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. These weekly data are then attributed pro-rata to months to compute the excess mortality indicator. For the purpose of the excess mortality indicator, the death figures for the latest weeks available in a Member State are corrected for incompleteness. Data remain provisional and subject to revision with the next releases.
The excess mortality indicator is based on a data collection for which National Statistical Institutes from the EU and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) have transmitted weekly deaths data to Eurostat on a voluntary basis since April 2020. The weekly deaths dataset that Eurostat publishes regularly is used to compute the monthly excess mortality indicator by mapping the deaths of each week to a full month.
26 EU countries provided weekly mortality data: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden. Data received from EFTA and EU candidate and neighboring countries are not present in this article. The EU aggregate for the first quarter 2025 was estimated using the most recent available data. The mortality indicator is unavailable for Cyprus, and for Romania in March.
Data for several countries were recalculated from 2021 onwards by applying the new coefficients of data completeness transmitted by the National Statistical Institutes in May 2023. For more information about Methodology, please consult Excess Mortality Metadata [1].
The excess mortality indicator does not distinguish between the causes of death and did not differentiate between sex and age class. For more information on causes of death statistics, please see Causes of death - monthly statistics and Causes of death statistics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess death statistics revealed the mortality burden potentially linked to the pandemic, encompassing not only direct virus-related deaths, but also indirect deaths. This measure included undiagnosed and unreported COVID-19 deaths as well as deaths from other causes influenced by the overall crisis. It also accounted for the reduction in deaths from other causes, such as accidents that did not occur due to restrictions on commuting or travel during lockdown periods. In the post-pandemic period, the indicator captures the effects of heat waves during summer and influenza during winter.
Context
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in statistics. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the National Statistical Institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a special data collection on weekly deaths, to support the policy and research efforts related to the pandemic. The National Statistical Institutes regularly and voluntarily transmit data to Eurostat on weekly deaths up to the latest available week. 'Excess mortality' has been identified as the most useful indicator for assessing additional deaths, complementing the other indicators contained in the European Statistical Monitor. To capture the dynamics of mortality changes in a stable way, the excess mortality indicator is calculated for each month, no later than 45 days after the end of the reference period (depending on data available to Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes). Eurostat started to publish the excess mortality indicator in relation to the COVID-19 public health emergency announced by the World Health Organisation. While the global COVID-19 crisis is over, the indicator remains relevant and is available to capture possible future factors affecting mortality in the EU.
Explore further
Other articles
Database
- Mortality (DEMO_MEXRT), see:
- Excess mortality - monthly data (demo_mexrt)
- Mortality (demomwk), see:
- Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk)
Thematic section
Methodology
- Excess mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mexrt)
Visualisation
- Data Browser (Excess mortality line chart) - select geopolitical entity and time
- Data Browser (Excess mortality bar chart) - select time