Data extracted on 11 November 2024
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This article provides a comprehensive overview of mortality from all causes in the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The information in this article is based on weekly deaths data transmitted on a voluntary basis from the countries and the excess mortality indicator calculated by Eurostat.
The weekly deaths data is a relevant source of insight into the immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to the reported weekly deaths data, the excess mortality rates provide a more comprehensive perspective on the overall impact of the pandemic in the EU countries.
In the context of this article, excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from all causes measured during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2023), above what would be observed in the same month over the baseline period (2016-2019). The baseline was determined based on the average number of deaths between 2016 and 2019. A higher excess mortality indicates a greater number of additional deaths compared with the baseline, while a negative value signifies that there were fewer deaths in a particular month than what was observed during the baseline period.
On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the COVID-19 pandemic a global health emergency, marking the beginning of the pandemic. In Europe, the first COVID-19 cases were reported in France on 24 January 2020 and the first COVID-19 deaths were recorded in France on 5 February 2020. The period of the COVID-19 pandemic had 3 waves with peaks of mortality, further analysed in this article. On 5 May 2023, the WHO declared the end of the pandemic.
Overview of the COVID-19 pandemic
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of weekly deaths fluctuated significantly and indicated several waves. As the pandemic spread over the European Union, weekly deaths surged, reaching elevated levels in March and April 2020 (weeks 11 to 22) compared with the baseline 2016-2019, particularly in Italy and Spain. During the second largest wave of the pandemic from October to the end of December 2020 (weeks 41 to 53), all EU countries were affected and most of the deaths occurred in the eastern part of Europe. The third-largest wave of the pandemic from October to December 2021 (weeks 40 to 52), once again affected the eastern part of the European Union the most. Figure 1 provides a time series of weekly deaths in the EU countries between 2020 and 2023. The official period of the COVID-19 pandemic is indicated by the 2 vertical dashed lines on the graph. The data are expressed in thousands and compared with the baseline 2016-2019.
Source: Eurostat (demo_r_mwk_ts)
Figure 2 presents the monthly excess mortality rates during the COVID-19 pandemic spanning from March 2020 to May 2023. It illustrates the 3 major waves of the pandemic that occurred during this period: the first wave between March and April 2020, the second wave between October and the end of December 2020, and the third wave between October and December 2021. The official period of the COVID-19 pandemic is indicated by the 2 vertical dashed lines on the graph.
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
First wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: March-April 2020
During March 2020, the number of deaths rose rapidly in some European countries when compared with the average number of deaths in the same period from 2016 to 2019.
In March 2020, there were 52 800 additional deaths in EU countries compared with the average number of deaths for the same period in the previous 4 years (2016-2019). In the subsequent month, April 2020, there were 111 818 additional deaths in the EU, representing a 53% increase from March to April 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic affected every part of the EU, however, its impact was not evenly spread. The top 5 countries with the highest number of additional deaths during the first wave of the pandemic were Italy, Spain, France, the Netherlands and Belgium. In March 2020, Italy reported 26 700 additional deaths, followed by Spain (17 100), France (7 000), the Netherlands (1 700), and Belgium (890). In the following month, April 2020, Spain registered 32 000 additional deaths, followed by Italy (25 000), France (20 500), Germany (8 700), and the Netherlands (7 600).
At regional level, the 5 NUTS-3 regions that experienced the highest number of additional deaths during the initial wave of the pandemic were in Belgium: Arr. de Bruxelles-Capitale/ Arr. Brussel-Hoofdstad with 1 300, Arr. Liège with 700, Arr. Hasselt with 590, Arr. Antwerpen with 550 and Arr. Mons with 470 additional deaths.
Figure 3 shows the excess mortality rates in March and April 2020 by country during the peak of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the excess mortality rates in the EU increased significantly. In March 2020, the excess mortality rate was 13.6%, but by April 2020, it had increased to 25.2% (see Figure 3). Spain had the highest excess mortality rate at 54.3% in March 2020, followed by Italy (49.6%), Malta (17.3%), France (15.5%), and the Netherlands (14.9%). In April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic reached its peak in the first wave, resulting in a considerable rise in excess mortality rates across the EU. Among the EU countries, Spain continued to record the highest excess mortality rate at 80.8%, representing an increase of 33% compared with the previous month. Between March and April 2020, Belgium experienced a significant rise of 84% in excess mortality rate, reaching 73.1%. In the Netherlands, the excess mortality rate increased to 53.8%. Despite a decrease of 19% from March to April, Italy continued to have a high excess mortality rate in April 2020 (41.7%). Sweden, on the other hand, experienced a 95% increase in excess mortality rate over the same period, reaching 38.7% in April 2020.
During the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, some eastern European countries were less affected Countries such as Latvia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania and Czechia recorded either zero or negative excess mortality rates during the first wave.
Among the EFTA countries, Switzerland had the highest excess mortality rate (27.2%) in April 2020.
After the first wave of the pandemic, there was a decrease in excess mortality rates across the EU and EFTA countries in May and June of 2020. However, this trend was followed by an increase in most of the countries. By September 2020, the excess mortality rates in Czechia, Poland, and Romania were above 10% compared with their initial rates, which were either negative or close to zero.
Second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: October-December 2020
From October to the end of December 2020, all EU countries experienced a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the highest incidence rates recorded in eastern Europe.
During the second wave, there were 339 600 additional deaths in EU countries compared with the baseline. Poland had the highest number of additional deaths during this period with 65 450 deaths. Italy continued to record a significant number of additional deaths totalling 49 780, followed by Germany (40 930), France (31 620) and Romania (29 730).
At regional level, the most affected NUTS-3 regions that experienced the highest number of additional deaths during the second wave of the pandemic were Milano and Torino in Italy with 3 550 and 3 320 deaths, respectively. Furthermore, Miasto Warszawa in Poland recorded 2 660 additional deaths, Bucuresti in Romania registered 2 600 additional deaths and Napoli in Italy had 2 290 additional deaths.
Figure 4 provides an overview of the excess mortality rate by country during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. As depicted in the figures, most countries experienced a substantial rise in excess mortality rate from October to November 2020, followed by a slight decrease in December 2020. However, in December 2020, Lithuania, Croatia, and Slovakia experienced an additional increase in excess mortality rates compared with November 2020.
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
During the second wave of the pandemic, which occurred between October and December 2020, excess mortality rates began to rise again across EU countries. In October 2020, Czechia recorded the highest excess mortality rate among EU countries at 52.8%, followed by Poland (45.2%), Slovenia (26.1%), and Romania (25.2%). Other countries, including Belgium, Spain, Malta, and Slovakia also recorded excess mortality rates above 20%. The peak of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was reached in November 2020, when the excess mortality rate in the EU reached 40%, which represented an increase of 57% from October to November 2020. In November 2020, excess mortality increased in most EU countries, particularly in eastern Europe. The highest rates were observed in Poland (97%), Bulgaria (94%), Slovenia (91.3%), and Czechia (75.8%). Compared with the first wave, excess mortality rates in these countries increased by more than 90% from April to November 2020. Among them, Bulgaria had an increase of 105%, followed by Slovenia (96.9%), Poland (96.3%), Czechia (96.2%), and Romania (95.9%). For Finland, Estonia, Denmark and Ireland, the excess mortality rate remained below 20%. By December 2020, the excess mortality rate in most EU countries began to decline to lower levels. However, during December 2020, in Slovenia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Croatia and Slovakia excess mortality rates remained above 50%.
Among the EFTA countries, Lichtenstein and Switzerland were the most affected countries. In November 2020, both countries recorded excess mortality rates higher than 60% and by December 2020, excess mortality in Liechtenstein had increased to 117.8% compared with the baseline.
During the period spanning from January to February 2021, the second wave of the pandemic began to wane, resulting in a decline in excess mortality rates to lower levels in many EU countries. In March 2021, the number of additional deaths in Europe experienced a slight increase. Certain countries such as Poland, Italy, Czechia, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, France, Slovakia, Greece, Estonia, Lithuania, Malta, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Cyprus continued to report above-average figures, while others such as Denmark, Belgium, Germany, Sweden, Ireland, Portugal, Finland, the Netherlands, Spain, Latvia and Austria registered no excess deaths. However, a subsequent peak in excess mortality was observed in April 2021, when the EU's excess mortality rate once again increased to 20.9% before gradually decreasing to 5.7% in July 2021.
In the EFTA countries, the excess mortality rates continued to decrease after the second wave. In March 2021, the excess mortality rate fell below zero in all EFTA countries and slightly increased in April 2021.
Third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: October-December 2021
In the autumn and winter of 2021, the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic reached the EU Member States. During this wave, 274 770 additional deaths were reported across EU countries, with 3 countries, Germany (48 210 additional deaths), Poland (47 840), and Romania (41 100) experiencing more than 40 000 additional deaths above their baseline average.
At regional level, the most affected NUTS-3 regions that experienced the highest number of additional deaths during the third wave of the pandemic were Bucuresti in Romania with 3 940 and Sofia in Bulgaria with 2 990 deaths. They were followed by Prahova in Romania with 1 888 additional deaths, Miasto Warszawa in Poland with 1 835 additional deaths and Plovdiv in Bulgaria with 1 780 additional deaths.
Figure 5 depicts the excess mortality rates by country during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, covering October, November, and December 2021.
Source: Eurostat (demo_mexrt)
During the autumn of 2021, there was an increase in excess mortality rates in the EU, peaking at 26.6% in November and dropping to 23.7% in December 2021. Eastern European countries were more impacted by the third wave, particularly Romania for which the excess mortality rate reached 110.8% in October 2021. In the same month, other countries with high excess mortality rates were Bulgaria (74%), Latvia (52.4%), and Lithuania (43.6%). By November 2021, 8 Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Slovakia, Romania, Croatia, Latvia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia) recorded mortality rates of over 50%. Bulgaria had the highest excess mortality rate (88.5%). Although the excess mortality rates in the EU began to slightly decrease by December 2021, Poland, Croatia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Czechia, and Hungary still registered excess mortality rates above 40%. Compared with the second wave of the pandemic, the excess mortality rates decreased in 15 EU countries, including Italy, France, Belgium, Sweden, Spain, Malta, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Czechia, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Lithuania. The largest decrease was observed in Italy (88%). In France, Belgium, and Sweden, the excess mortality rate between the peaks of the second and third waves (from November 2020 to November 2021) decreased by more than 70%. In Spain, Malta, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia and Czechia, the excess mortality rate dropped by more than 40%. At the EU level, the excess mortality rate declined by 33% from November 2020 to November 2021.
Among the EFTA countries, the excess mortality rates increased during November and December 2021. In November 2021, Norway recorded the highest excess mortality rate (20.6%). In December 2021, the highest rates were recorded for Switzerland (25.7%) and Liechtenstein (22.1%).
Towards the end of the COVID-19 pandemic
In 2022, the European Union experienced relatively low levels of excess mortality, following the third wave of COVID-19, with an average of approximately 10%. However, July, August and December 2022 were the exceptions, with the latter recording the highest excess mortality rate of 20.3%, an additional 82 640 deaths. By 2023, the excess mortality rate had significantly decreased, falling to 4.2% in January 2023. In February 2023, there were no excess deaths for the first time since February 2020 and the indicator fell below the baseline to -1.0%. In March and April 2023, excess mortality rose slightly to 1.4% and 4.4% respectively. In May 2023, the World Health Organization declared the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency; the excess mortality rate in the EU was 3.7% at that time (see Figure 1).
Source data for tables and figures
Data sources
The excess mortality indicator is expressed as the percentage of additional deaths compared with the baseline period (2016-2019). A negative percentage indicates that no additional deaths occurred in a particular month compared with the baseline period. The excess mortality indicator, covering EU and EFTA countries, is based on weekly death data transmitted to Eurostat by EU Member States on a voluntary basis. Data are classified by sex, 5-year age groups and NUTS regions, and are continuously updated with more recent weeks of mortality statistics. These weekly data are then attributed pro-rata to months to compute the excess mortality indicator.
In total, 31 countries provide weekly mortality data: Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Data received from candidate and neighbouring countries are not included in this article.
Data from Sweden include deaths for which a precise week has not been specified (unknown week). These data have been redistributed among the existing weeks up until the most recent weeks.
The excess mortality indicator does not distinguish between the causes of death. However, it provides additional insight into the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on European societies. It should be stressed again that while a substantial increase in excess mortality largely coincided with a COVID-19 outbreak in each country, the indicator did not make a distinction between causes of death and did not differentiate between sex and age class. During the COVID-19 pandemic, statistics on excess deaths provided information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the pandemic, thereby covering not only deaths that were directly attributed to the virus but also those indirectly related to it. In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality captured COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported, as well as deaths from other causes that might have been attributed to the overall crisis situation. It also accounted for the reduction in deaths from other causes, such as accidents that did not occur due, for example, to restrictions on commuting or travel during the lockdown periods. For more information on causes of death statistics, please see Causes of death - monthly statistics, Causes of death statistics and Causes of death statistics by age group.
Context
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered tremendous interest in statistics. Hence, in April 2020, in cooperation with the national statistical institutes of the European Statistical System, Eurostat set up a special data collection on weekly deaths to support the policy and research efforts related to the pandemic. The national statistical institutes regularly and voluntarily transmit data to Eurostat on weekly deaths up to the latest available week. These data are cross-classified by sex, 5-year age group, and NUTS 3 region. Data going back as far as 2000 are submitted in order to enable seasonal comparisons. If detailed cross-classifications or back data are not available, participating countries may submit less detailed data or data for shorter time periods to Eurostat. Considering the urgent need for statistical information to monitor mortality, timeliness is the main goal of this data collection exercise.
Excess mortality has been identified as the most useful indicator for assessing additional deaths, complementing the other indicators contained in the European Statistical Monitor. To capture the dynamics of mortality changes in a more stable way, the excess mortality indicator is calculated for each month, no later than 45 days after the end of the reference period (depending on data available to Eurostat from the National Statistical Institutes). Eurostat started to publish the excess mortality indicator in relation to the COVID-19 public health emergency announced by the WHO. While the global COVID-19 crisis is over, the indicator remains relevant and is available to capture possible future factors affecting mortality in the EU.
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Database
- Mortality (DEMO_MEXRT), see:
- Excess mortality - monthly data (demo_mexrt)
- Mortality (demomwk), see:
- Weekly deaths - special data collection (demomwk)
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- Excess mortality (ESMS metadata file — demo_mexrt)
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